MIT Researchers Develop 'Decision Framework' For Water Infrastructure Spending

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) claim they know what water utilities should do to spend more efficiently on infrastructure.

In a new paper, the research team argues that “there is often a strong case for building relatively modest, incremental additions to water infrastructure in advanced countries, rather than expensive larger-scale projects that may be needed only rarely,” according to a release from MIT. The findings were published in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management.

The researchers developed “a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multistage decision analysis for uncertainties reduced over time with additional information,” according to the study.

“Scenario analysis for deep uncertainties underlines the significant impact of assumptions about the future and also on value judgments about the cost of water scarcity in evaluating infrastructure performance,” the paper continued.

The study focused on water service in Melbourne, where a 12-year drought ended in 2009. The drought prompted the construction of a $5 billion desalination plant, according to MIT. The plant was ready for operation in 2012, but the drought had already ended.

“As a result, the plant has barely been used, and its inactivity, combined with its hefty price tag, has generated considerable controversy. As an alternative, the study suggests, smaller, modular desalination plants could have met Melbourne’s needs at a lower price,” the report said.

Sarah Fletcher, the lead author on the paper, weighed in on the risk of inefficient infrastructure spending.

“If you build too much infrastructure, you’re building hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in assets you might not need,” she said, per the report.

The high cost of restoring and building water infrastructure is an urgent problem around the world. “On a global level, a total of $7.5 to $9.7 trillion is needed in investment for water and sanitation and related equipment” over the next 15 years, CitiGroup reported in an analysis released this year.

To read more about prioritizing infrastructure projects visit Water Online’s Asset Management Solutions Center.