Forecasters Keep Close Watch On Lake Erie's Algal Bloom

Here’s the good news: Experts say faucets in Toledo, OH, will likely remain poison-free this year.

And the bad news: The algal blooms on Lake Erie “are expected to be worse than normal this year, well above the size at which they can potentially become harmful to aquatic life and even humans,” the Detroit Free Press reported.

The lake is experiencing "the third or fourth largest" algal bloom on record this year, according to the Toledo Blade.

Scientific forecasts play a key role in ensuring clean service for ratepayers who drink water from the algae-soaked lake. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) coordinates the forecast using contributions from experts at universities.

“The prediction is based on a composite of at least five scientific models, with the margin of error narrowing from year to year as more is learned about the relatively new realm of science,” the report said.

This year, scientists say the biomass of this summer’s bloom will be about 7.5 out of 10, which puts 2017 behind 2015, the report said. It remains unclear if 2017 will surpass 2013. The amount of runoff into the lake plays a key role in how much algae grows, the report said.

But the biomass of the algal bloom is not the only factor affecting drinking water. The toxicity of the bloom also matters. Scientists are still working on ways to forecast toxicity, the report said.

“A large algae bloom doesn't necessarily mean the microcystin water problem is again imminent. Local weather conditions, including wind direction and water temperature, play a role,” the Detroit Free Press reported, citing University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Don Scavia.

The depth of the alga bloom plays a key role in whether tap water will be affected, according to the Free Press.

"Generally, if you see a bloom well, it's a boater's problem; if you don't see it well, it's a water treatment plant's problem," said Rick Stumpf, an oceanographer with NOAA, per the Free Press.

Toledo officials banned drinking water for residents in August 2014 due to toxic algae contamination, CNN reported. That year, the bloom was not unusually large, but it was especially toxic.

Stumpf was positive about this year’s forecast.

"I would have no hesitation about the water in Toledo at all this summer," Stumpf said.

To read about preventing algal bloom visit Water Online’s Nutrient Removal Solutions Center.