Rethinking Preparedness: Flooding Can Happen Anywhere

By Jeff Albee

Severe flooding is shaking communities across the globe — whether it’s the millions of dollars in property damage in Michigan or through the loss of hundreds of lives in Rio de Janeiro. Floods are happening more often and in more unexpected places, and governments everywhere — regardless of their historical risk factors — need to use more advanced technology systems in order to keep citizens safe.

If global weather patterns over just the last few months have shown us anything, it’s that nothing is certain anymore. Even a place like Dubai — in a region synonymous with arid, desert landscapes — can find itself underwater. 

The issue with the predominant mindset around flood preparation is that it only is practiced rigorously in communities with regular histories of flooding. Only homeowners in certain flood-prone areas need to buy flood insurance; only cities that are regularly hit by things like hurricanes need to have citywide emergency flood preparedness plans in place.

Historically, this mindset has worked: global weather patterns have followed predictable trends that generally fell within the bounds of historic averages. Certain 100-year flooding events could occur, but they were sufficiently rare so as to not be a cause of major concern.

The traditional emergency preparedness playbook doesn’t necessarily apply to the issues faced today. Communities, regardless of traditional rainfall patterns, need to approach the risk of flooding with a renewed sense of urgency, and understand that severe flooding can happen to them — even when some are in the midst of years-long droughts. 

Even so, rushing to implement infrastructure solutions to prevent flooding that is still low-likelihood isn’t a top priority for most cities. While the additional safety layer provided by a new culvert system or series of retention ponds would be reassuring, the cost associated with it and the land demands that go with it aren’t likely to be popular unless the memories of recent floods fuel it.

And the frank reality is that communities can’t simply engineer their way out of a severe flood. If that were the case, Florida wouldn’t be at the risk it is for flooding every time a hurricane hits. Obviously, it still is. 

Instead, a modern approach to flood preparedness is one that accepts the reality that we live in. A flood event may be unlikely for a given geography, but extreme weather is increasingly making the unlikely likely — and the potential consequences can be severe.

With that in mind, communities can tap into modern tech tools that employ AI to accurately predict and understand flood risk, offering more flexible and rapid solutions for communities. Traditional flood assessments are a great tool, but they’re limited in what they uncover. They’re expensive, slow, and approach the issue of floods through a deterministic lens: With this much rain, it will flood this much, in these areas. 

In long-term planning scenarios, for example, a data-driven model can help a community understand what infrastructure projects could be worth investing in. At the same time, when a community knows that a major weather event is on the horizon, emergency responders can use that same tool to create a probabilistic reflection of flood risk to human lives that lets officials prioritize evacuation plans and responses.

It’s a different sort of planning than governments have been accustomed to. In using models built on data rather than just traditional flood modeling communities have the ability to consider all options in their flood planning. It’s not just about figuring out what floodwater mitigation systems are needed, but also about figuring out which roads need to be closed in emergency situations. If a major flood event is coming, can lives be saved by simply closing a road? Or does the community need to consider more permanent actions to protect a particularly vulnerable area? 

Look at the flooding in Houston, for example. One of the most widely shared videos from the floods was of a driver trudging through a flooded street, unaware that they’re about to drive straight into a creek that’s been covered by water. While a traditional survey may not show this area as being at risk of this type of flooding based on previous averages, the data-driven model would give city officials the ability to see the risk in this specific area and take the necessary precautions to keep people safe.  

With flooding likely to be an ongoing risk to communities everywhere, governments no longer have the luxury of pretending to be immune from flood risks. Technology that improves communities’ understanding of flood risk will be key to building resilience before, during, and after a storm arrives.

Jeff Albee is the Vice President and Director of Digital Solutions at Stantec.