Rethinking Dam Infrastructure: Lessons From Minnesota Floods
By Jeff Albee
If there’s one lesson to be learned from Minnesota’s recent floods, it’s that it’s time for the nation to begin rethinking its approach to critical infrastructure. In addition to physical improvements to high-risk infrastructure, technological improvements that dramatically improve communities’ security and safety — especially during nationwide disaster events — will require a shift in our approach to emergency preparedness.
Minnesota’s devastating flooding saw nearly half the state sustain significant water damage. Relentless rainfall caused chaos on streets and across communities, ultimately creating conditions that caused the partial failure of one of the state’s most picturesque hydroelectric dams.
But the floods were not a complete surprise to the state; Minnesota had been bracing for severe rain events, aware of the risks posed by its aging infrastructure. In our current climate — where communities face significant risk from unusually extreme storms — the one that hit Minnesota went largely as expected. Flooding was severe, but followed patterns that were projected, damaged properties that were known to be at risk, and caused the partial collapse of a dam that had been identified as a risk in previous assessments.
All of which is to say that Minnesota did so much right, yet still suffered the consequences; what failed was the infrastructure itself. It was not able to handle the flood waters that resulted from an extreme weather event.
That’s a critical lesson for communities across the country now: preparing for storms is more than emergency response. It requires updated, robust infrastructure and advanced planning that re-calibrates the risk of more severe storms and their knock-on effects.
In business and in sports, the key to future success is learning from today’s mistakes. It’s an equally important concept for states to absorb as they look to prevent future disasters. After-action reports are critical.
As the floodwaters recede, communities need to assess their responses: did they effectively evacuate vulnerable populations? Did they have plans in place for the day care centers, hospitals, and nursing homes in potential flood zones? Did they close the right roads and prevent people from driving through dangerous areas?
These are standard questions that every state’s emergency response team should be asking themselves post-disaster. However, the more complicated issues are ones that involve infrastructure.
Unlike road closures and evacuation plans, issues with critical infrastructure cannot be addressed in the midst of a storm. Identifying and repairing critical infrastructure must happen well in advance.
As such, states need to adopt a data-driven approach to managing their infrastructure risks. They need to inventory every dam statewide and conduct comprehensive risk assessments that include estimating consequences of failure. That kind of projection becomes a key tool in securing funding for necessary repairs to mitigate the very real risks.
A reliance on outdated and incomplete data will impede a state’s ability to effectively address its infrastructure needs. It’s not that states are flying blind, as many actively use data to monitor dam health; they have gauges and piezometers that diagnose and dashboard a dam’s status. But what states should consider in this era of heightened storm risk are more active monitoring systems and more complete simulations of potential disaster scenarios.
Most dam owners have operations plans for floods that are based on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates. But those estimates, as shown by recent record-shattering rains, are frequently outdated.
Across the country, PMPs are captured on antiquated curves that span across nationwide maps, giving broad estimates that no longer reflect the current climate reality. The actual probable maximums that we’re seeing go far beyond the once-rare "probable maximum" precipitation events.
Obviously, that’s not effective. Understanding the needs of our infrastructure starts with having accurate data around what sort of climate a dam or drainage infrastructure is up against.
Updating these probable maximums can be managed with modern computing and AI systems, but that will take time. While currently underway, these updates aren’t expected to produce new estimates until 2030. Until then, states can go a step further to install better gauges and instruments that not only tell local officials what’s happening, but state officials as well. Having a statewide system that paints a picture of breach and overtop analysis can help the state better respond to flood events.
With improved technology, the state also has the ability to more rapidly assess the health of its various dams. With more than 200 dams across the Midwest estimated to be in similarly poor condition, an individual analysis of each dam takes significant time and resources.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning technology can use data to paint a probabilistic picture of dam health. For instance, they can improve inputs like weather forecasts and rainfall projections or take existing analysis a step further by modeling cascading events and using those as inputs into data driven models that can result in actionable insights around when and where the greatest risks will be.
With a bit of planning, dams can be outfitted with instrumentation to develop models that support data-driven decision making by understanding baseline levels and establishing risk levels of the sensor and system network. Modern intelligence tools and models can also be used in conjunction with satellite and drone imagery to detect changes — including those that can’t be detected by the naked eye — between recurring dam inspections, giving a rapid assessment of the physical health of a structure, easily and rapidly. With these insights, informed, confident, data-driven decisions can be made
As weather events become more extreme, having a holistic understanding of the interconnected risks is crucial for preparing appropriate responses.
The need to protect citizens has become more critical as storms grow in intensity. The lessons from Minnesota underscore the potential of technology to enhance flood response and resilience nationwide. States should conduct portfolio assessments, leveraging technology to monitor the highest risk infrastructure, to understand how they can improve their responses to similar disasters.
Jeff Albee is the Vice President and Director of Digital Solutions at Stantec.