URI Ph.D. Graduate, Professor Explore Challenges Of Flood Risk Management In Newly Published Paper

In a new study, University of Rhode Island Ph.D. graduate Kyle McElroy and Marine Affairs Professor Austin Becker explore the role of data and biases, as well as the challenges and decision-making processes, used by U.S. municipalities in integrating flood risk management into urban planning. Their paper, “Factors Influencing Flood Risk Management Integration in U.S. Municipal Planning: An Expert Mental Model Approach,” was published earlier this month in the Journal of Flood Risk Management.

Using an “Expert Mental Model” approach, the study went beyond existing literature, adding expert interviews to examine the interplay between external (physical risks, societal support, funding), institutional (political will), and process influences such as data.

McElroy and Becker were surprised to discover that technical data plays a relatively small role. “I was talking to many experts,” McElroy said, “and the feeling was that they had enough data to make decisions for 50 years out. But there’s a limit on how much technical data is informing actual decisions. There are so many other ecosystems to consider—including what’s going on politically and economically.”

Becker, McElroy’s major advisor, worked with her to help design the approach and the methodology.

“She chose a really interesting project that came directly out of her prior experience as an engineer,” said Becker. “Our understanding of complex problems like these can really benefit from this kind of deep study that breaks them apart into components—in this case of the various factors that influence flood risk planning.”

McElroy’s impetus for the study was to shed light on how values influence planning decisions.

“I was particularly interested in understanding why one project may get done, while another doesn’t. I used Providence’s comprehensive plan update as one example of how risk management is integrated into broader municipal decision making,” she said.

It is McElroy’s hope that those involved become more proactive when it comes to assessing and planning for flood risk—including making the necessary investments now to be able to address issues for the longer term. But she acknowledges the conundrum planners face, often being driven by the most recent—or current—disaster.

“Right now, climate impacts on flooding are still seen as a long-term issue. It’s thinking 25 to 50 years out, but we are already seeing changes in how and where flooding happens, particularly in our urban areas. Several areas across Rhode Island are already seeing an increase in the frequency of flooding from intense, short-duration rainstorms.

“So, it really comes down to how do we start planning: how do we get out of this reactive mindset when it comes to planning for issues like flood risk. And it’s hard, I don’t have an answer for that,” she said. “I was an engineer in my past and so I can appreciate a good model. But getting more data is not going to change the larger issue.”

Part of her aim is to help raise awareness of the process planners go through in terms of developing flood risk recommendations and regulations to be put into practice. She believes the mental model approach taken with this project can help on that front.

“We just take it for granted that you have a set of planners and they end up with some new building regulations, for example, or some design factors that account for flooding. But there are so many aspects to consider—like the cause of the flooding, whether inland flooding or storm surge flooding, how climate change will affect flooding in the future, how much risk a municipality or individual property owner may be willing to absorb, and how the insurance industry fits into that,” she said.

“This mental model research aims to illuminate all the factors influencing how flood risk management progresses or is strengthened in municipalities. The hope is that seeing the web of influences and pulling apart what weighs more than others can help bring clarity to what often seems like a messy, black box process, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of flood-risk decisions.”