Predictive Modeling For Water Main Condition Assessments: M77 Manual Guidance

This article highlights the transformative potential of proactive water infrastructure management, advocating for a shift from reactive approaches to predictive, data-driven strategies in managing water mains. Reactive management—waiting for water mains to break—leads to higher costs, public inconvenience, and compromised safety. Instead, proactive management, especially through predictive modeling, allows utilities to assess and prioritize risks before issues arise, minimizing disruptions and optimizing resource allocation.

Explore the concept of "condition assessment" as outlined by the American Water Works Association (AWWA) in its M77 manual. This assessment uses risk evaluations based on the likelihood and consequences of failures. By assigning risk scores, utilities can determine which water mains require immediate attention and which can be monitored less intensively, similar to how medical tests are tailored to individual health profiles.

Predictive modeling is an essential tool, offering a comprehensive, cost-effective means of assessing risk by integrating diverse datasets—water main data, soil conditions, weather, demographics, and more. This advanced approach helps utilities focus their physical assessments on the highest-priority areas, guiding both short-term maintenance and long-term improvement efforts.