Major Study Warns Of Rising Phosphorus Risks

EU faces tightening phosphorus supply as demand surges

A new scientific study warns that Europe is heading toward an increasingly strained phosphorus supply. EU agricultural demand for phosphorus may more than double in the coming decades. Demand from batteries, photovoltaics and semiconductor manufacturing could grow to as much as ten times today’s levels.

The study concludes that global phosphorus demand could exceed supply by 2040–2050, increasing competition between food production and fast-growing technology sectors. At the same time, the EU remains 83% dependent on imported phosphorus, while 90% of global geological reserves are located in just five countries, according to the article published in Science of the Future.

“Europe is sleepwalking into a phosphorus crisis. We cannot secure our food supply while relying on imports from a handful of countries like Russia and Morocco. If Europe is serious about food security and resilience, we must start recovering the phosphorus already circulating in our wastewater,” says Pär Larshans, Chief Sustainability Officer at the Ragn-Sells Group.

The study stresses that mining and processing virgin phosphate rock is highly carbon-intensive, with its climate impact expected to double by 2050. By contrast, recovering phosphorus from wastewater can significantly lower the climate footprint of phosphorus fertilisers, in some analyses by up to around half, according to the authors. Despite this, recovery solutions remain largely absent from EU climate models and policy tools.

A key finding is that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could play a central role in boosting phosphorus recovery. To do so, it may need to be updated with measures such as rebates for recycled content, climate labelling, and technology-transfer incentives. As the authors write: “The circular economy of wastewater is a recognised mitigation option, yet emerging recovery technologies are underreported in climate models.”

“This study shows clearly that phosphorus recovery needs far greater political priority. Recognising phosphorus as strategically important and removing remaining barriers to recycled phosphorus is essential for food security, competitiveness and Europe’s long-term resilience”, says Jan Svärd, CEO of EasyMining.

The study is published just as the United States added phosphate to its 2025 Critical Minerals List, placing it on par with lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements. Ragn-Sells’ innovation company EasyMining has developed Ash2Phos, which recovers high-purity phosphorus from sewage sludge ash, producing the recycled calcium phosphate RevoCaP. Two full-scale facilities are now being built in Sweden and Germany.

About Ragn-Sells Group
The environmental company Ragn-Sells converts waste into raw materials that can be used over and over again. Ragn-Sells drives the transition to a circular economy through solutions that reduce its own and other actors' environmental and climate impact. Ragn-Sells is a family owned corporate group founded in 1881. The company operates in four countries and employs 2,760 people. In 2024, Ragn-Sells’ turnover was SEK 8.8 billion. For more information, visit www.ragnsells.com