Leakage Model Incorporates Climate Change Impact

Updated guidance for Water Resource Management Plans (WRMPs) puts greater focus on how water companies in England and Wales account for climate change in demand forecasts, including leakage, writes Luke Hart, software and analytics manager, Ovarro.

Burst water mains and breakouts of multiple leaks have long occurred during winter freeze-thaw weather, but water companies are increasingly seeing the same problems during hotter, drier summers as the ground dries out and shifts. These extreme weather patterns, driven by climate change, are making long-term leakage forecasting more difficult; current models tend to rely on relatively static assumptions, based largely on contemporaneous levels and expected changes over time.

Under the UK Government’s updated Water Resources Planning Guidelines, published in June 2026, water companies in England and Wales must account for climate impacts when forecasting leakage, among other aspects of water management. The updated guidance creates a need for a more sophisticated modelling approach to help water companies understand how climate-related changes in weather could affect leakage in the long-term.

Modelling development

Ovarro’s consultancy team was selected by one UK water company to develop a new model for water management that incorporates climate change into leakage forecasting, while providing a clearer picture of the uncertainty surrounding future estimates.

This allows the water company to comply with the updated guidelines and ensure its WRMP better incorporates current and future risks around leakage, as part of the overall supply-demand balance, supporting more informed planning and investment decisions.

In its role as a consultancy, Ovarro has routinely undertaken large modelling projects for water companies, but this is the first that looks at the impacts of climate change on leakage specifically. Due to the new guidelines, it is an approach that all companies in England and Wales are now expected to take. The modelling is being carried out using Ovarro’s data platforms and modelling systems, with the client providing all historical leakage and weather data and climate projections that will be used to assess future scenarios.

Such large, complex datasets require sophisticated statistical techniques to ensure they are managed effectively. While the availability of cloud computing and increased processing power has made these methods more accessible over the last decade, implementing the WRMP changes is still a resource-heavy task. Even for water companies with in-house data and modelling teams, developing an entirely new forecasting model is likely to take many months and would be difficult to manage alongside business-as-usual activities.

Increasing data volumes

More widely, the volume and frequency of data available to water companies continues to grow meaning similar data management challenges will arise. For example, deployments of acoustic loggers, correlators and monitors, now reach tens or even hundreds of thousands.

In the past, updates from these devices were daily or hourly - now utilities receive continuous real-time information, amounting to billions of data reads annually. This is why more water companies are choosing to work with specialist consultants with the expertise and tools needed to manage increasingly complex, scaled datasets, for both one-off projects, as well as ongoing data management.

For the WRMP updating project, once the models are complete, Ovarro will configure them within the client’s asset investment planning system, enabling the company to run leakage forecasts against different climate scenarios as required. Importantly for the client, this links the modelling used for long-term water resources planning with asset investment planning, two areas that have traditionally been managed independently.

Broader consultancy

The project demonstrates the wider consultancy service that Ovarro provides to water companies, alongside its technology and managed services. This includes annual and biennial household demand forecasting, supporting leakage reporting cycles and WRMP reviews. The consultancy team also offers services for leakage management and reduction targeting.

The aim is to help water companies make better use of their existing datasets and on-going data acquisition; turning the information into insights that can support operational decisions, investment planning and water resource management in an increasingly complex and tightly regulated water sector.

About Ovarro

Ovarro, a business unit of AMETEK’s MCT division, is a global technology company that works with customers across water, energy oil & gas, broadcast and transportation, providing end-to-end solutions to help monitor, control and manage their assets. Our connected technology is always there, always on. Secure, proven, trusted; integrating seamlessly with our clients’ assets. Collecting and communicating data from some of the most remote locations and harshest environments on the planet. Enabling businesses to work smarter and more effectively.