Predicting Risks For Critical Infrastructures: Regional Analyses Are Needed

At the EGU in Vienna yesterday Deltares (Micheline Hounjet) presented work conducted for the FP7 project CIPRNet. This project produced a decision-support tool for electricity grid management during rain storms for use by power-plant operators in Rome. A training tool has also been developed to teach first responders how to understand and respond to failures of critical infrastructures.

Local use

The decision-support tool and the training tool are very detailed and they have been designed for use at the local level: the operators need to know which transformers need to be shut down before rain storms damage the network and the first responders need to decide how many fire-fighters need to be where at what time.

Regional events such as floods

The work done by Deltares for CIPRNet is now focusing on crisis managers at the different crisis organisations that need to cooperate to prepare for regional events like floods. The level of detail will be different for these end users but they do need an overview and a basic understanding of different possible cascades to make decisions at a more regional level and to put the right questions to the operators:

• Where can we evacuate people to? Are drinking water and electricity available?
• How long will the evacuation location be safe? Are drinking water and electricity available for a longer time, or do we need to evacuate people to another location after one day?
• Will electricity be switched off beforehand? What effect will this have on crisis communications? How long can communications be maintained without electricity?
• With the right kind of information, decision-makers can quickly decide where to bring evacuated people and if additional power and drinking water supply is necessary.

Data needed to present cascade effects

Deltares is currently looking at the data density required to present cascade effects in an understandable and reliable way so that crisis managers can use this information to make decisions. The CIrcle method developed by Deltares is an important tool that will help to produce these insights and results.